Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $768,895$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(4.7 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{996,091.5}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 149.0)}}\) (asimptote \(996,091.5\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $31,369$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,997.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 131.3)}}\) (asimptote \(36,997.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $129,689$ on 2020-09-21
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $130,986$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(5.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{139,933.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 131.2)}}\) (asimptote \(139,933.8\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,654$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(154 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,343.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 165.3)}}\) (asimptote \(13,343.7\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,092$ on 2020-09-21
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,558,040$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(2.2 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,033,729.3}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 133.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,033,729.3\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $137,272$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{143,147.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 112.7)}}\) (asimptote \(143,147.8\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $427,336$ on 2020-09-21
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $447,468$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(4.86 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{416,041.3}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 103.0)}}\) (asimptote \(416,041.3\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $12,298$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,772.4}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 103.8)}}\) (asimptote \(11,772.4\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,059$ on 2020-09-21
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $126,711$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.46 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{147,883.1}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 125.4)}}\) (asimptote \(147,883.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $11,095$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(937 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22,269.6}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 203.4)}}\) (asimptote \(22,269.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,764$ on 2020-09-21
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $770,435$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.15 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{905,664.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 153.0)}}\) (asimptote \(905,664.6\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $24,397$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(516 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,663.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 141.7)}}\) (asimptote \(28,663.8\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $105,138$ on 2020-09-21
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $640,147$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(4.88 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,077,542.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 180.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,077,542.1\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $13,482$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(110 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,303.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 180.9)}}\) (asimptote \(26,303.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $118,102$ on 2020-09-21
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,740$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(54.4 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,276.1}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 151.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,276.1\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $97$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.11 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{164.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 158.4)}}\) (asimptote \(164.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $118$ on 2020-09-21
