Analysis of the most affected countries in South America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Peru⮸

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $768,895$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(4.7 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{996,091.5}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 149.0)}}\) (asimptote \(996,091.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $31,369$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,997.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 131.3)}}\) (asimptote \(36,997.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $129,689$ on 2020-09-21

Bolivia⮸

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $130,986$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(5.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{139,933.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 131.2)}}\) (asimptote \(139,933.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,654$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(154 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,343.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 165.3)}}\) (asimptote \(13,343.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,092$ on 2020-09-21

Brazil⮸

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,558,040$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(2.2 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,033,729.3}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 133.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,033,729.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $137,272$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{143,147.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 112.7)}}\) (asimptote \(143,147.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $427,336$ on 2020-09-21

Chile⮸

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $447,468$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(4.86 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{416,041.3}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 103.0)}}\) (asimptote \(416,041.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12,298$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,772.4}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 103.8)}}\) (asimptote \(11,772.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,059$ on 2020-09-21

Ecuador⮸

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $126,711$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.46 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{147,883.1}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 125.4)}}\) (asimptote \(147,883.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11,095$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(937 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22,269.6}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 203.4)}}\) (asimptote \(22,269.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,764$ on 2020-09-21

Colombia⮸

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $770,435$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.15 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{905,664.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 153.0)}}\) (asimptote \(905,664.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $24,397$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(516 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,663.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 141.7)}}\) (asimptote \(28,663.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $105,138$ on 2020-09-21

Argentina⮸

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $640,147$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(4.88 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,077,542.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 180.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,077,542.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13,482$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(110 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,303.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 180.9)}}\) (asimptote \(26,303.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $118,102$ on 2020-09-21

Suriname⮸

Population $586,632$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,740$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(54.4 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,276.1}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 151.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,276.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $97$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.11 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{164.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 158.4)}}\) (asimptote \(164.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $118$ on 2020-09-21

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Suriname recovered 88%
Chile recovered 83%
Bolivia recovered 46%
Venezuela recovered 17%

Venezuela⮸

Population $28,435,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $67,443$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(481 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{91,555.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 166.3)}}\) (asimptote \(91,555.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $555$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(6.95 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{751.6}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 153.3)}}\) (asimptote \(751.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,162$ on 2020-09-21